June 30, 2009 - Second Quarter Letter
The Good news today is that this market appears to be much oversold. Cash in money market funds is at record levels, margin debt is at 40 year lows, and the overall consumer and investor sentiment is still poor, which means the wall of worry that bull markets traditionally climb is likely to remain intact and climbable for substantially longer. (click to read)
January 08, 2009
The -23% decline in the S&P 500 last quarter was the seventh worse on record. It can be argued that such performance is a signal of an oversold market condition. Historically, that is the case. According to a recent study by Ned Davis Research such quarterly market declines have resulted in very attractive positive returns in subsequent quarters. If one were to look at such historical returns in the post World War II era, the results are particularly compelling. (click to read)
October 16, 2008
The last three weeks have represented nothing less than a market crash, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunging 25% to 30% during that time. (click to read)